Buccaneers vs Cowboys Player Props: Best Bets and Predictions

The NFL is a quarter of the way through the season as we kick off Week 5 with Thursday Night Football. The Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) are hosting the Baker-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers under the lights of Jerry World. For the Cowboys, they are coming off an impressive road victory over the Houston Texans while the Bucs nearly pulled off an upset over the Green Bay Packers with rookie QB Jalon Daniels at the helm. Daniels looked the part of a rookie QB making his debut, with two interceptions and a pedestrian 148 passing yards. However, he did make plays with his legs, totaling eight rush attempts for 55 yards. Dallas is approaching a weak part of their schedule in the next few weeks (vs TB, @ GB, vs ARI) and it will be interesting to see if they begin to ascend up the NFC ranks after a 2-2 start.

Let's get into my best Bucs vs Cowboys player prop bets for TNF, while you can also get our expert NFL picks on the side and total for this matchup and every game throughout the entire 2026 season.

Best Buccaneers vs Cowboys Player Prop Bet: Jalon Daniels (TB) Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1u

It seems obvious, but Daniels managed eight rush attempts for 55 yards against a Packers team that only allowed 23 rushing yards to opposing QBs in the first three weeks, including Geno Smith, who went for five rushes and 17 yards. I'm angling the game script of a Dallas blowout into this play, which would allow for more passing downs and, in turn, additional scramble attempts for Daniels late in the game.

For Dallas, they've already seen Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson all gash them for 54, 72, and 50 yards. Many of Daniels' dropbacks last week included immediately rolling to the right or left to make throws on the move, and in a close game they were able to rely on the run game for four quarters (22 rush attempts across Irving, Tucker, and Gainwell). If the game gets out of hand early, those passing downs where Daniels is rolling out of the pocket should turn into picking up 4-5 yards to keep drives alive.

Find out pro NFL bettor Chris Farley's Bucs vs Cowboys predictions for TNF - he's on a red-hot 14-4 run!

Bucs vs Cowboys Player Prop Bet: George Pickens (DAL) Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1u

Through the first three weeks of the season, Pickens was in the rare space of being one of the best separators in the NFL, along with the fewest targets combined with uncatchable balls thrown his way. Last week against the Texans, CeeDee Lamb exploded for 12 targets, leaving Pickens as an outlier of just three. My expectation for Thursday night is they swing the volume the other way to Pickens, or at least more in line with his base figure of 6-8 targets this season.

If we use last season as a barometer, his median targets in a game were nine, so I'm getting a Pickens reception line at a favorable number. His target share has taken a slight dip in 2026, decreasing from 22% to 19%, but that's including his outlier three targets in Week 4. The Bucs defensively are running Cover 3 defense 50% of the time (top-five rate), and prior to Week 4, Pickens owned 56% of the Cowboys' targets against Cover 3 defense according to Sharp Football Analysis.