Best MLB player prop bets for today 7/6: Luis Severino takes on the Pirates

Jun 24, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) reacts after a strikeout to end the top of the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 month ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the prop I am eyeing up on Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Luis Severino (NYY) over 6.5 strikeouts (+108)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Luis Severino, a 28-year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic, has battled his fair share of injury woes. This season is his first with more than 4 appearances since 2018. Thankfully for baseball fans, Severino has bounced back this season in an impressive manner.

A 3.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 1.17 K/IP are all encouraging to see, and his last 9 starts have picked it up even further. Over those last 9 starts, Severino has pitched a 3.17 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 1.26 K/IP. He has averaged 12.76 pitches per strikeout on 96.44 pitches per start during that span. Severino has cleared this 6.5 line in 7 of those 9 starts with misses against the White Sox and when facing Houston for the second straight time.

His 3.35 ERA drops to 2.90 when looking at his xERA. That ranks 85th percentile. Severino ranks 87th percentile in xBA, 79th percentile in xSLG, and 84th percentile in K%. His barrel and walk rates sit just above average at 56th percentile each. He has a zone contact rate that is 4% lower than average and a chase contact rate 7% lower than average. This leads to a 74th percentile whiff rate and his weak contact rate is well above average as well.

The Pirates over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching have the 2nd highest K% at 26.1%. During that span, they have just a .212 AVG and a wRC+ of 91. While just the 11th highest whiff rate as a team, the Pirates started the year much better in that category and have fallen apart since. They take the 6th most first-pitch strikes and have the 5th most looking strikeouts this season. I like Severino to get ahead in counts and finish off at least 7 Pirates with his wicked slider that possesses a 43.8% whiff rate and 33.6% put away rate.

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