Javan Shouey
Wednesday’s slate of MLB action is jam packed with potential betting angles, but my favorite is backing Texas starter Tyler Mahle to record 5 or more strikeouts in his matchup with the Boston Red Sox. Let’s dive in!
Tyler Mahle (TEX) over 4.5 strikeouts (-112)
Available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
Tyler Mahle has had a very strong start to his 2025 campaign, and I am looking to isolate his strikeout production in his matchup with the Boston Red Sox today. Mahle has allowed just 5 earned runs this season across his first 37.2 innings of work, and his batted ball metrics support his success so far. The right-handed veteran utilizes a 4-pitch approach to keep opposing hitters off balance, and the result has been an 88th percentile hard-hit rate and an 80th percentile barrel through the first 100 batted balls. Mahle does a pretty solid job of jumping ahead early in counts, and his above average zone rate helps fill the zone and get him to 2-strike counts. Boston chases on pitches located outside the strike zone at an above-average rate, and they also are tied for the lowest zone-contact rate at just 82.5%. That combination should allow Mahle to utilize his full pitch mix, and we can expect to see an increase in his swing-and-miss output today.
Through 7 starts Mahle has remained under 4.5 strikeouts 4 times, but I would expect this to be a mark he clears in the majority of his outings this season. His opening start of 2025 was against these Boston Red Sox, but inefficiency and lack of control resulted in just 1.2 innings across 61 pitches thrown. With 87 or more pitches in each of his last 5 outings, and 90 or more in 4 of those 5 starts, Mahle’s workload is fully stretched out and where we want it to be. Mahle has had tough road environments so far, facing the Giants and Cubs in their home park where they each have very low strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. He also faced a tough Dodgers lineup, finishing with just 4 Ks despite 7 complete innings of work. Mahle did take advantage of his opportune matchup with the Angels, recording a season-high 9 strikeouts across 93 pitches, and his last outing was impressive with 6 Ks against a low-K% Athletics team.
Boston has the 4th highest K% against right-handed pitching this season, and Nathan Eovaldi was able to take advantage of this matchup just yesterday with 7 punch outs across his 6 innings pitched. Weather-related concerns kept me off backing Eovaldi yesterday, but no such concerns are present in today’s matchup with clear skies and just moderate wind. Jose Berrios, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan have all exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in their matchup with Boston this month and given Mahle’s ability to work deep I see some very nice value on his 4.5 strikeout prop today. I would play this prop to -135 odds before pivoting to another angle.
