Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Patrick Mahomes out for revenge

The AFC has a marquee matchup on Sunday between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs are the team many consider to be at the top of the AFC tree, along with the Buffalo Bills, but the Bengals are the team who actually won the AFC Championship and went to the Super Bowl last season.

The Chiefs are in better shape at this point with a 9-2 record this season to lead the conference standings, but the Bengals have shaken off a slow start to win 3 straight games and reach 7-4. There’s plenty at stake in this matchup as Patrick Mahomes goes up against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who beat them 27-24 in last season’s AFC Championship game.

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NFL Week 13 Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction

The Chiefs have won 5 straight games to be in line for the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs at this stage of the season but it has not all been plain sailing for them this year. The running back position has been in flux, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire falling out of favor and rookie Isiah Pacheco now leading the way, while the wide receiver group has also seen several changes, with the addition of Kadarius Toney but a number of injuries to deal with too.

The Bengals had a slow start to their defense of the AFC title, losing 3 of their first 5 games, and they suffered another setback when they were dominated by the Browns in a 32-13 loss. But wins over the Panthers, Steelers and Titans have got them back on track and star wide receive Ja’Marr Chase and running back Joe Mixon are both hoping to return after injuries for this massive home game.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Chiefs -1.5, Bengals +2.5
Total points over/under: 52.5-53 points
Money line odds: Chiefs -130, Bengals +115

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals expert picks

We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Chiefs and Bengals.

Chiefs vs Bengals point spread pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

From just a football fan standpoint, this game could be the highlight of all the Week 13 games. Patrick Mahomes versus Joe Burrow has everyone’s attention and this being a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game only fuels the fires of excitement. On top of that, both quarterbacks are getting primary weapons back as Mahomes will have JuJu Smith-Schuster back on the field while Burrow gets his best buddy Ja’Marr Chase back after a 4-game absence.

Last season’s victory for the Bengals was a hard-fought 27-24 battle and we expect this game to be just as close. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 18th in DVOA both against the run and the pass, so expecting them to keep the Bengals at bay is going to be tough. Joe Mixon is expected to clear concussion protocol which gives Burrow the supportive ground game he needs and with the Chiefs allowing 233.5 passing yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns allowed (second-highest in the league), you have to expect a heavy workload for Chase, Tee Higgins and, if available, Tyler Boyd.

But the Chiefs aren’t the only team with defensive struggles. Cincinnati has dealt with several injuries in its secondary and has allowed an average of 231.3 passing yards per game over the last 3, a number that is close to 30 yards per game higher than their season-long average. With Isiah Pacheco now leading the Chiefs backfield and having Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and a developing Skyy Moore available, they should be able to not just keep pace with the Bengals, but best them and avenge last season’s loss. The Bengals are 8-3 against the spread this year, but in a game with a spread this low, it’s about who wins.

Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Bengals predictions

Chiefs vs Bengals Over/Under totals pick: Over 52.5 (-110)

The firepower for both of these teams is amazing. Mahomes leads a Chiefs team that is getting its No. 1 wide receiver, Smith-Schuster, back on the field and he joins an arsenal of weapons ranging from the always-reliable Kelce to the suddenly emerging rookie Moore. On top of that, they have seen rookie Pacheco slowly develop throughout the season and take over as the new lead running back. When Andy Reid has an array of talent this promising, it’s difficult to imagine any defense holding them down.

The Bengals are getting back 2 key components of their offense this week. Mixon is expected to clear concussion protocol and Chase is going to also be available. The Bengals have averaged close to 26 points per game and that number has gone up to 33 over the last 3 games. Kansas City does have a strong pass-rush and is 4th in the league in sacks, but keeping this Bengals offense from scoring is going to be an incredibly difficult task. The over is 4-1-1 over the last 6 games for the Bengals and 5-1 in Chiefs’ road games this season. Both teams need and want this win in a major way, so expect that shootout we all want to see.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals expert predictions

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