Week 17 of the NFL season concludes with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Our NFL expert, Clevta, has a best bet and predictions for the game.
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It should be a great Monday Night showdown between the two of the top three teams in the AFC. By now you have heard that the Bengals are 19-3 ATS in Burrow’s last 22 starts. But you not all of that has come easy. They easily could have lost outright if not for Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble inside the 10 but also the Pats missed three extra points as well. The prior week the Bucs were dominating the first half but then a series of flukey turnovers gave the Bengals constant great field position in their win. Not all of these covers and wins have been blowouts. This great run is also baked into the line. Consider that the Chiefs were 2.5 point favorites in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The same Chiefs who were 2.5 point underdogs at home against these Bills, meaning the market valued Buffalo as multiple points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. So for the Bills to be 1.5 points less of a favorite in the same spot as the Chiefs were just a month ago, means that there has been a big correction in the Bengals value. This is likely Buffalo -3 if this game were played just a few weeks ago. The question is if you feel comfortable to fade Joe Burrow and company right now, even if you think it’s the wrong price.
It’s a great matchup and there are not a ton of holes to be poked on either side here. I will say that outside of Patrick Mahomes, the Bengals have not faced that many good QBs this season. In fact, the Bengals pass defense has faced the 4 th easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses based on EPA. Dealing with Josh Allen is a step up in challenge that is tough to prepare for. I trust both of these QBs but I trust the Bills defense just a tad more and Allen’s ability to almost always make a play when needed.
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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