I like the Saints here at any number over a field goal. They are coming off a shutout loss but that result is totally misleading, as the Saints moved the ball very well on a great 49ers defense but couldn’t punch it in multiple times. Two of their drives ended in turnovers, one on a 4th-down miss and they missed a field goal, as well. The Saints also ended another drive with a punt on the San Francisco 42 following a bogus incompletion reversal on a deep Chris Olave reception that would have put them inside the 10. They actually out-gained the Niners 4.9 to 4.7 yards per play. The Saints’ defense was fantastic, holding a really good SF offense to just 13 points. They got back multiple starters on that defense last week and they were flying around. They held the Niners to 1 of their 4 worst offensive performances all season. New Orleans could potentially get back another starter this week in CB Marshon Lattimore, who has missed more than a month.
Tampa Bay just isn’t very good right now and probably can’t gain margin if needed like it would be here. Since Week 2, each of the Bucs’ last 3 wins has come by 6 points or fewer and were coin flips at the end. They offense has been struggling, is 21st in EPA and has done this against the 3rd-easiest schedule of opposing defenses this season. Now the Bucs are without RT Tristan Wirfs, who is sidelined by a high ankle sprain. Wirfs has been an elite RT since he came into the league and ranks #1 in PFF pass-blocking grade among all NFL RTs this season. They have to create margin now against a Saints D that owns Brady historically under coach Dennis Allen. Three of Brady’s 10 worst games as a Buc have come against the Saints defense, including Week 2 of this season.
I know everyone will discuss Andy Dalton’s record in primetime (6-20 SU and 9-17 ATS), but Brady is not any better. In fact, he is just 2-14 ATS in his last 16 primetime games. I also like backing teams following a shutout loss. These teams come in the next week with extra motivation and they are 26-11-3 ATS (70%) dating back to 2015.
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
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