Caleb Wilfinger
Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament has got off to a terrific start. We’ve got 8 more games on tap for Sunday, as the college hoops action should be electric for 12 consecutive hours. I’m currently on a 15-8 run over my last 23 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Here is a look at my best bets for Sunday, but make sure you also check out our March Madness basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Kentucky Wildcats -2 (-110) over Kansas State Wildcats
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
A number of college basketball blue bloods will highlight the round of 32 slate on Saturday, and I’ll be focusing on Kentucky for our first best bet. The Wildcats are an inconsistent team but there is reason for optimism among Big Blue Nation after Kentucky handled its business against Providence on Friday.
Kentucky put forth a dominant effort on the glass, and that should continue against a Kansas State team that is 218th in defensive rebounding rate and 98th in offensive rebounding rate per BartTorvik. The Purple Wildcats should have a difficult time against the likes of Oscar Tshiebwe and Jacob Tobbin in the paint, but I also don’t foresee great games from Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. If either guard isn’t playing at their best, it’ll be hard for K-State to generate much offense in this one. I’ll back Kentucky to reach the second weekend once again.
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UConn Huskies -3 (-110) over Saint Mary’s Gaels
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
UConn went through a period of turmoil at the turn of the year, but no team is playing better than the Huskies over the last 6 weeks. In fact, UConn is ranked as the top team at BartTorvik since February 1 — which backs up what the metrics and the “eye test” would tell you about the Huskies. Historically, this is a team that has the statistical profile of a national champion; it ranks 6th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency at KenPom.
The positive momentum for the Huskies continued into their tournament opener against Iona on Friday, as they dictated the pace of the game en route to a convincing victory. And while the Huskies are in for a stiffer defensive challenge against Saint Mary’s, I still expect them to control the game on both ends and play at their pace. The Gaels’ guards have looked shaky in recent weeks, including in their tournament opener against VCU, where the Rams clearly flummoxed them with their intense pressing defense. In fact, if it wasn’t for an injury to Ace Baldwin Jr. on the other side and the play of Mitchell Saxon in the paint, Saint Mary’s likely wouldn’t have advanced. Given the dominance and experience of the Huskies’ frontcourt, I like UConn to advance and win by multiple possessions.
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