NFL Week 17 same game parlay (+1200): Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) directs teammates during the second half \against the New Orleans Saints at TIAA Bank Field.
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Ricky Dimon

NFL· 3 weeks ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

The Green Bay Packers have already clinched the NFC North title and they have a mathematical chance to lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference in Week 17. That can happen if Green Bay beats the visiting Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football and a couple of other results go the right way. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Vikings vs Packers, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.

Packers -13.5 (-105)

Allen Lazard to score a touchdown (+240)

Dalvin Cook Over 78.5 rushing yards (-114)

Parlay odds: +1200

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Allen Lazard finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Green Bay win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Dalvin Cook to exceed his rushing yardage quota, but even if Cook does that there is no reason why the Packers can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

Packers -13.5 (-105)

Aaron Rodgers and company have put themselves in good position for the NFC’s top spot with a 12-3 record that includes a 12-2 run in their last 14 overall and a current 4-game winning streak. It is true that one of Green Bay’s losses is to none other than Minnesota, but that was on the road and the Vikings were much healthier — and simply much better — a little more than a month ago than they are now. But back to Rodgers…. He has 33 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions this year, highlighted by an 18-to-1 such ratio at Lambeau Field.

Running back Dalvin Cook is back from Covid-19 protocols for the Vikings, but they will be without receiver Adam Thielen for the rest of the season because of an ankle injury and Kirk Cousin’s Covid-19 absence expanded the line by 7 points. The Vikes are 2-3 in their last five games with a loss to Detroit during this stretch. They have not defeated a team currently with a winning record since that Nov. 21 victory over Green Bay. Minnesota is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against the NFC. The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 overall, 6-1 ATS in their last seven at home, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine against the NFC. Green Bay should win going away.

Allen Lazard to score a touchdown (+240)

Rodgers looks poised to earn another NFL MVP honor and his connection with Lazard has been effective of late. Lazard was never targeted more than 4 times in any of the first 4 games this season; he has been targeted more than 4 times 5 of the last 8 – a stretch that has seen him deliver 5 touchdowns. Minnesota is 27th in the league against the pass and its secondary is extremely banged up. The Vikings are also tied for 7th in the department of most passing TDs allowed (26).

Dalvin Cook Over 78.5 rushing yards (-114)

Green Bay’s run defense is every bit as bad as Minnesota’s passing defense. The Packers are surrendering 4.8 yards per carry; only the Steelers are allowing more. Given that Kellen Mond will be under center for the Vikings, you have to think they are going to run the ball with Cook early and often. The former Florida State standout has exceeded the 100-yard mark in three of his last four games and in four of his last six. He has exceeded Sunday’s quota (78.5) in seven of his last nine outings. Cook should soar past in in this one.

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