Steelers vs Browns Player Props: Best Bets and Predictions

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cleveland as -2.5 road favorites, hoping to take down the Browns and take first place in a tight AFC North. All 4 teams in the division sit at 2-1, and it will be interesting to see if the Browns are in fact worthy of their 2-1 record. So far QB Deshaun Watson has been met with much criticism for his on-field performance this season despite being 56/82 (68%) for 587 yards and a 5:1 TD to INT ratio. Will the the Shedeur Sanders chants become louder if the Browns fall in embarrassing fashion? On the Pittsburgh side, the Steelers offense rose to the occasion in Week 3 against the Bengals, putting up 30 points on their way to a home victory. The total sits at a quiet 38.5.

Let's get into my best Steelers vs Browns player prop bets for TNF, while you can find out our expert NFL picks for every Week 4 matchup and every game throughout the entire season.

Best Steelers vs Browns Player Prop Bet: Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Over 72.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1u

The total sitting at 38.5 entices me to lean on a running back that is expected to see a big workload on Thursday night. Judkins is the workhorse in Cleveland, and his rushing attempts is up to 16.5 with the juice favoring the under, and that still makes me feel comfortable about him landing in the 14-15 rush attempt range. The Steelers have been bottom half in the league in defending the RB position, allowing 23 attempts for 101 rushing yards along with 4.3 receptions for 36.6 yard per game.

For Judkins, he is entrenched as the starter, but Raheim Sanders ate into his workload last week so we must ask ourselves if that is a new trend or is that a one-off. In a division game in primetime, I like to think Sanders was worked in with the short week ahead of them and Judkins commands 65-68% of snaps like he did in the two weeks prior. The Steelers represent the second-easiest opponent Judkins has faced this season, with the Jags and Bucs ranked in the top five in terms of RB fantasy production. I prefer not to overthink this spot and go with the workhorse to see 15+ rush attempts and 2+ targets on Thursday Night Football.

After cashing both of his 5-star plays last week, don't miss pro NFL bettor Chris Farley's Steelers vs Browns best bets for TNF

Steelers vs Browns Player Prop Pick: KC Concepcion (CLE) Over 5.5 Receptions (+296)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 0.25u

I'm bringing down the risk and playing KC Concepcion for a breakout game instead of a longshot TD scorer, considering the game is sitting under 40. Concepcion was eighth last week in first-read target percentage (42.1%) and the short passing game has been a staple of this Browns offense with Concepion leading the charge. He leads the team with 20 targets through three games and is coming off a season high of nine.

I don't like laying 0.43 cents of juice on his over 3.5 reception line, but bringing this up to 6+ puts us at nearly +300 odds for only 0.25u of risk. The Steelers could be missing safety Jalen Ramsey to a broken hand this week or benefit from him being hobbled - both outcomes help Concepion see an increased target share. This is a great alternative to betting longshot TD scorers in what should be a boring primetime matchup.

Go for the big payday with our expert's Steelers vs Browns Same Game Parlay for TNF at +750 odds