2022 Aaron Rodgers futures: MVP odds, passing yards & best bets

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) warms up before the Green Bay Packers divisional playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lambeau Field.
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Keith

NFL · 2 weeks ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

There was speculation that Aaron Rodgers would either retire or switch teams following the conclusion of the 2021 season, but he will return to Green Bay for not one, not two, not three, but at least four more seasons. The quarterback signed a four-year extension worth $200 million, with $153 million guaranteed. However, the Packers offense will look a little different this season as Davante Adams will no longer be downfield for Rodgers. Adams was traded to the Raiders just days after Rodgers signed his extension, but Rodgers knew his favorite target was going to be gone before he signed the contract.

Aaron Rodgers futures odds and bets

Aaron Rodgers regular-season passing yards

Over 4050.5 (-110)
Under 4050.5 (-110)

The line for Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards continues to go down since opening at 4,120.5. It’s not too surprising considering Davante Adams will not be in Green Bay this season. Adams was by far Rodgers’ favorite target as Adams hauled in 123 receptions and 1,553 yards in 2021, which marked his third season in a row of at least 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. That means of Rodgers’ 366 completions and 4,115 passing yards in 2021, 33.6% of his completions and 37.7% of the yards were to Adams. It’s safe to say that Rodgers will miss No. 17 on the field this season, especially when considering his current receiving corps. Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins will be Rodgers’ four main targets on the field this season, but let’s be honest, that’s a severely below-average group. Lazard has a lot of potential, but besides that, it will be very hit-or-miss with this group. I don’t see Rodgers coming close to last season’s total, so take the under 4,050.5 yards.

Check out our best Josh Allen futures bets

Aaron Rodgers regular-season passing touchdowns

Over 31.5 (-120)
Under 31.5 (+100)

Rodgers has easily surpassed this mark in the last two seasons, as he threw 37 touchdowns in 2021 and 48 in 2020. But as stated several times throughout this article, No. 17 won’t be around. Adams caught 29.7% of Rodgers’ passing touchdowns in 2021 and 37.5% in 2020, so losing a receiver with that large of a presence will come with harsh repercussions. Rodgers is a great quarterback, don’t get me wrong, but he no longer has a No. 1 receiver and therefore will be playing with one of the weakest and least talented receiving groups in his career. Green Bay will also face several projected top-10 defenses such as the Bills, Buccaneers, Rams and Patriots, which will impact his chances for 6 points. I don’t see Rodgers having the same success without Adams, so I’ll also take the under 31.1 touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers MVP odds

Rodgers is currently +1000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel to win NFL MVP in 2022. If the Packers achieve any success this season, it will come through Rodgers. For that reason, if the quarterback can lead Green Bay to a great season and be a surprise contender, he will certainly be in the talks for the MVP award. If you feel confident that Rodgers will win the award in 2022, you can bet him to win it now at +1000 odds.

Read our NFL MVP predictions, which includes a +2000 longshot

Best bet: Aaron Rodgers under 31.5 passing touchdowns (+100)

It’s hard to think Rodgers will come near his total from last season without Adams. The Packers will likely put more emphasis on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the backfield as both running backs are healthy and ready to take on a larger role in the Green Bay offense. Dillon was a rising star for the Packers in 2021 as his success on 3rd down will likely earn him more opportunities earlier in the attack. With numerous top-tier defenses on their schedule and a lackluster receiving corps, Rodgers will likely end up with 27-31 touchdowns.

Now read our best Tom Brady futures bets

Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2022 NFL season.

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