MLB Monday parlay at mega (+882 odds) today 9/19: Astros win as underdogs

Houston Astros catcher Martin Maldonado (15) celebrates with first baseman Yuli Gurriel (10) and center fielder Chas McCormick (20) after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park.
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Keith

MLB

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

Welcome to another week of the MLB season. Yes, there’s Monday Night Football, but why not make some money before the games start? The last time I wrote a mega parlay, I cashed it at +804 odds, so I’m hoping to make it two in a row!

But before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks for every MLB side and total today.

Let’s get into our mega parlay for Monday and break down each of the legs one by one.

Houston Astros ML over Tampa Bay Rays (+100)

Although Luis Garcia is by no means the Astros’ ace, Houston does not deserve to be the underdog in this game. Garcia has not had the finest second half of the season so far, which is unexpected given that he is due for some positive reversion, but he has a 4.04 ERA and a 3.52 xERA through 140.1 innings in 2022. The Astros offense has been on fire recently and they should carry Garcia to a win.

The Rays have scored more than 5 runs only once in their last 10 games, while Houston has averaged 6.6 runs over their last 8 games. The Astros enter this game having won 7 of their last 8 games and have not had plus odds for their money line in weeks. On Sunday, they destroyed the Athletics 11-2. In the first game of this series, I’ll take Houston as the underdog.

Check out our full Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins under 6.5 (+110)

Neither team will earn a postseason chance, and at this point in the season, neither team really cares if they win or lose. Their focus is on 2023, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in this game. The Marlins offense has been the worst in the league in the second half of the season as they rank 30th in OBP and OPS since mid-July. In their last 10 games, they’ve averaged just 3.5 runs. Without Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler or Avisail Garcia, the Marlins’ offense is dreadful. They will face Wide Miley on Monday, and that poses another problem — a lefty. The Miami offense ranks 30th in OBP and OPS against left-handed pitching in 2022, so the combination of a lefty in the second half of the season seems like Miami’s kryptonite.

Edward Cabrera will start for the Marlins, and in his one start against the Cubs at the beginning of August, he had a no-hitter through 5 innings. He was pulled after just those 5 innings, but the rookie struck out 8 Chicago hitters and was dominant. He has a 2.70 ERA and a .206 xBA, so he should once again dominate the Cubs offense. Back the alternate total under in what should be a very low-scoring game.

Check out our full Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins predictions

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (+110)

I’ll bet against Tyler Alexander whenever possible. The Tigers have lost 12 of his 13 starts this season, his only win coming in August against the lowly Angels. Of the 12 losses the Tigers have had with Alexander on the mound this season, 11 of the losses have come by 2 runs or more. The lefty has a 5.35 ERA and a 5.39 xERA while ranking in the 1st percentile for strikeout rate, 1st percentile for whiff rate, 2nd percentile for xSLG and 3rd percentile in xBA.

Advanced metrics indicate that Alexander is pitching exactly as expected, and there will be no end to his struggles in the near future. In his last 9.1 innings, which has spanned over 2 starts, he has allowed 11 runs and 16 hits, and there’s no reason the young Baltimore offense shouldn’t continue bashing Alexander. The Tigers rank 30th in OBP and OPS when on the road, and all signs point to a massive Orioles win on Monday.

Check out our full Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles predictions

Today’s MLB mega parlay

Houston Astros ML over Tampa Bay Rays (+100)

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins alternate total under 6.5 (+110)

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (+110)

Best parlay odds: +882 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Odds available at time of publishing.

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