MLB picks Monday 10/16: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Pitchers to headline Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park.
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Kyle Lupas


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Born and raised in Northeast Pennsylvania and a former college baseball player, I'm an avid fan and handicapper of the MLB, NBA, NFL and NCAA's. Looking to find an edge by any means necessary. A lifelong Phillies fan, I was still unable to get my learner's permit the last time they made a postseason appearance. For Kyle Lupas media enquiries, please email
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game waiting for your bet to cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight.

The Philadelphia Phillies have beaten the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS for a second consecutive year and find themselves back in the NLCS. This time, they’ll go up against a red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks team that’s won all 5 of their postseason games, including a 3-game sweep of their division rivals in the Los Angeles Dodgers. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.

Check out our Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-140)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are understandably slated as underdogs as they begin their series with the reigning National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies, but this team is not one to be slept on. This young and hungry D-backs’ team is very similar to last year’s Phillies ballclub that went from 6-seed to competing in the World Series. However, if the D-backs want to replicate what Philadelphia accomplished last season, it begins with their starting pitching. Luckily for Arizona, they have a starting pitcher by the name of Zac Gallen, who finished the regular season with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across 34 starts. One of those starts came against the Phillies on May 24, where Gallen allowed just 2 earned runs across 5.2 innings of work. The biggest knock on Gallen this season have been his home and away splits, pitching to an impressive 2.47 ERA at home across 16 starts to a 4.42 ERA over 18 starts on the road. However, a counter to this criticism would be that over his past 3 starts on the road (2 of which have come in the postseason), Gallen has allowed just 4 earned runs across 17.1 innings.

Zack Wheeler will counter for the Phillies and has been one of the most dominant, if not the most dominant starting pitcher this postseason. After posting a 2.78 ERA across 6 starts in the 2022 postseason, Wheeler has followed up in this postseason with a 2.08 ERA and 18 strikeouts through 2 starts. In his last start against the D-backs, Wheeler surrendered just 1 earned run on 4 hits across 6 frames. In addition to that, Wheeler has allowed just 1 first inning run over his previous 9 outings, and with Arizona being out of action since Wednesday, Wheeler should have the upper hand. I’m backing a scoreless first tonight at Citizens Bank Park.

Check out our Diamondbacks-Phillies SGP at +500 odds!

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