College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Saturday, September 19
It's been an exciting first few weeks of college football, and the season is set to kick into another gear this weekend with a loaded slate on Saturday. With a jam-packed 12 hours of college football ahead of us, it’s time to get into the Week 3 schedule with my weekly CFB best bets piece. We are off to an 8-3 start in the column on the young season, so let's keep the momentum going!
With the weeknight slate behind us, it's time to turn our attention to Saturday's massive card. Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action and every FBS game throughout the year.
CFB Best Bet: SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Over 58.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Over 59.
One of the biggest games on the Week 3 slate comes in the ACC, where we'll see Louisville host SMU in what could be a de facto ACC title elimination game come November. Both of these teams have clearly established themselves as second-tier contenders in the conference, and the margins in this game should be razor thin — as evident by the very short line we're seeing (Louisville -1.5 at most outlets). Instead of taking a side, I'm more interested in backing the over in a game that should feature plenty of points, lead changes and momentum swings.
SMU has struggled a bit on the road in recent seasons, but the Mustangs are no stranger to putting up points in any setting. Kevin Jennings and this offense have been very effective through the first two weeks of the campaign, including putting up 585 yards of offense in a 27-24 win over Florida State in Week 1 — a result that would've looked a lot more lopsided if the Mustangs didn't turn the ball over four times inside the Seminoles 40-yard line. Conversely, Louisville's defense showed some real flaws against Ole Miss in Week 1, and the SMU offense has been dominant on third downs while also generating explosive plays consistently. On the other side, the Cardinals have already proven to be a dangerous offense on the ground, and Lincoln Kienholz should be ready to take the next step after his excellent second half showing against Ole Miss. Add in the fact that this game should come down to the final few possessions, and it sure feels like a shootout is in the cards on Saturday.
Don't miss our expert's full analysis for our SMU vs Louisville prediction
CFB Best Bet: Texas State Bobcats -2.5 over North Texas Mean Green (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Texas State -3.
North Texas was not a team I was high on coming into the season, but the Mean Green have exceeded expectations to this point — covering the spread against Indiana with relative ease before routing UNLV at home last week as a short underdog. On the other side, Texas State has played a brutal first two games, with the Bobcats losing at Texas in Week 1 and following that up with a devastating home loss to UTSA in the final seconds. However, GJ Kinnie's team outgained UTSA by nearly 100 yards and averaged six yards per play against its hated rival. If it wasn't for the Bobcats turning the ball over three times, they'd have certainly won that game and would likely be laying over a field goal in this matchup. With these recent results in mind, this is a good spot to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on the Mean Green on Saturday.
Both of these teams have their strengths and weakness, but I just can't get there with this number — especially compared to where I had these teams power rated a week ago. North Texas just closed as a three-point underdog at home to UNLV, a team that I've been much lower on than the market this season. I backed the Mean Green in that game, seeing as it was a perfect spot against a Rebels team that was traveling to Denton, Texas for their second straight road game after returning from a trip to Hawaii in Week 1. However, Texas State is now being priced as a slightly worse team on a neutral field in this matchup, and I can't quite get there with that aggressive of a stance. I could end up being wrong, but I'll take my chances with Brad Jackson, Beau Sparks, Chris Dawn and an offense that should excel at home. It's a great chance to cash in on a desperate team against an opponent that is primed for a bit of a letdown this week. Lay the points with Texas State.
Be sure to check out our full North Texas vs Texas State prediction for their matchup on Saturday
CFB Best Bet: Rice Owls +9.5 vs Western Michigan (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Rice +8.5
I'm going to go a little bit off the board for my final best bet on Saturday's card, but it's a number that I believe to be badly mispriced. Rice was just drilled by Notre Dame a week ago, but the Owls actually held their own a bit on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, the Fighting Irish finished with just 118 rushing yards in that game, and Rice likely would've covered on the road if Notre Dame didn't finish with a +4 turnover margin. On the other side, Western Michigan bounced back from its heartbreaking "defeat" at the hands of Michigan in Week 1 by dismantling Monmouth at home. However, the Broncos actually were outgained in that game and allowed Monmouth to put up 431 yards and convert 11 third downs. Now, Lance Taylor's team has to head down to the sweltering heat of Houston, Texas to play an unglamorous game against Rice with a showdown in Kalamazoo against Boise State set for next week. It's a prime lookahead spot, and one that the Owls should benefit from immensely.
Even if the Broncos were locked in and completely focused heading into this matchup, Rice could still easily stay within this number as nearly double-digit underdogs. The Owls essentially function like a service academy due to their methodical and unorthodox run-heavy offense, which is exactly what you want when backing an underdog against an opponent that doesn't feature a high-powered offense in its own right. Western Michigan also plays at an extremely slow pace and prefers to keep the ball on the ground, so the clock should be consistently moving in this one. Don't be surprised if both teams turn in long drives that end in field goals, and Rice should be more than prepared to defend the proficient Broncos run game. Given that the total is in the low-40s, we shouldn't need that many points from the Owls to cover this number, so I'll put my faith in an ugly underdog to keep things close in what should be a sleepy spot for Western Michigan.
