College Football Parlay Picks: Saturday, September 19

Week 3 of the college football season feels like a big one. More and more conference games are popping up, and we will be treated to Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford in LSU vs Ole Miss as the headline bout at 7:30 pm ET on ABC. 

Ahead of all the action, I’ve compiled my weekly +1086 parlay consisting of my favorite bets on Saturday’s card, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get right into the breakdown, and don’t forget our CFB predictions for picks and analysis on every FBS game throughout the year. 

Alabama -19.5 (-112)

South Carolina ML (-180)

LSU ML (-155)

Colorado ML (+145)

Week 3 CFB Mega Parlay Odds: +1086

Alabama Crimson Tide -19.5 over Florida State Seminoles (-110)

Could this be the end of the road for head coach Mike Norvell in Tallahassee? Florida State fired their athletic director this week, and the rumor is that moving trucks were seen at Norvell’s house recently. Of course, the latter is speculation, but it’s also believable. For my money, Norvell is the lamest duck of a coach that we have in the sport; I’d have to imagine FSU’s check-signers are ready to finally cut the cord and take their losses. While that’s not actionable information necessarily, it is important to note, as this type of noise can permeate the locker room and distract the team from their on-field performance.

This is an opportunity for revenge for the Crimson Tide. When they went to Tallahassee last year, they were embarrassed by the Seminoles, losing outright as significant road favorites. There’s been quite a bit of roster turnover for the Tide since last year, but there’s still a core group of players that remain, and I’m sure the coaching staff has not forgotten. 

These teams have looked completely different this year. Florida State seemingly was going through the motions in Week 0 against New Mexico State, and they lost a game they really should have won against SMU in Week 1. They’re off a bye, which should help in theory, but with all the off-field noise, I’m not sure if that’s the case here. Meanwhile, Alabama has passed the eye test with flying colors. The metrics bear that out too, specifically on the defensive side. Through two FBS games, they’re fourth in total scoring opportunities, fifth in defensive PPA and 15th in defensive success rate allowed outside of garbage time, while they’re also second in third-down conversion rate allowed and seventh in yards per play allowed. That’s not exactly ideal for the Seminoles, as their offense is led by a turnover-prone quarterback in Ashton Daniels that has 42 turnover-worthy plays to just 32 big-time throws in his career (PFF).

Get Caleb Wilfinger's three CFB best bets for Saturday's massive college football card

South Carolina Gamecocks ML over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-180) 

Kamario Taylor vs. LaNorris Sellers. This is the most underrated game of the day, unless you’re a South Carolina or Mississippi State fan, then this game could represent either a launching point or speed bump for the remainder of the year. The Bulldogs certainly come into this game with the most impressive win of this young season, but the Taylor hype might be slightly overblown. He has yet to win a conference game as a starter, and this will be his first road game against an SEC opponent. Meanwhile, South Carolina knows the significance of this game. If the Gamecocks want to be a serious playoff threat, a la 2024, then this is a must-win. 

Defensive end and future NFL first-round pick Dylan Stewart and the top overall offensive line in the transfer portal, Jacarrius Peak, are both listed as probable for this game after missing the first two weeks, so the Gamecocks should be at full strength. In case you didn’t know, they also upgraded at offensive coordinator in the offseason, as Kendal Briles came over from TCU and offers an immediate and significant improvement in the play-calling department compared to last year under Mike Shula. Simply put, look for him to unleash Sellers, reminiscent of his 2024 form. The Cockpit will be deafening on Saturday afternoon, and South Carolina has owned this series in recent history; I won’t let recency bias influence my decision in this one.

Get out Sam's Mississippi State vs South Carolina five-star best bet

LSU Tigers ML over Ole Miss Rebels (-155)

Lane Kiffin is doing Lane Kiffing things this week leading up to one of, if not the most anticipated college football game in 20 years. Starting LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt was surprisingly announced as “doubtful” on Wednesday night. The line immediately plummeted to -1 from -3, but then the market called Kiffin’s bluff and bought the Tigers back up to the original number. Since then, Leavitt has miraculously been upgraded to "questionable." I’m expecting him to play, as is the rest of the college football world.

There’s such a thing as too much pressure and too much emotion, and that might be exactly what we get from Ole Miss in this spot. Kiffin’s message to his team resonated with me, the Ole Miss faithful hate him, the attention is on him. The Ole Miss faithful want to beat him more than they want to beat LSU per se, which takes some pressure off the Tigers, in my opinion. 

LSU has one of the most talented rosters in the country. The Tigers are absolutely nasty on the defensive side, and they showed tremendous explosiveness offensively Week 1 against Clemson, when the lights were shining bright on Baton Rouge because of the NFL-player fiasco. This will be their first true road game of the season, but Kiffin is very familiar with Pete Golding’s defensive scheme having been his boss for three years before leaving for LSU, while he also knows Trinidiad Chambliss and his weaknesses under center. This is a must-see game, and the environment will be as hostile as you’ve ever seen, but at the end of the day, the Tigers are more talented and led by a more proven coach at this level. Kiffin is a big-game hunter, and that should show again on Saturday.

Colorado Buffaloes ML over Northwestern Wildcats (+140) 

Northwestern has only played one game, and it came against a very good FCS team in South Dakota State. The Wildcats only led 17-12 going into the fourth quarter of that Week 1 game before eventually pulling away to win 34-18. However, they allowed 432 yards, converted only five of 12 third downs, committed nine penalties and lost the time-of-possession battle by about eight minutes. That’s not exactly encouraging against a talented Colorado team, albeit one that comes with some uncertainties.

The Buffaloes have already played a road game in an environment that will likely end up being more hostile than what they will see at Northwestern this weekend, and they managed to come away with the victory despite not playing the cleanest game. They were able to iron some things out against Weber State last week, when they went into halftime with a 42-14 lead. 

Julian Lewis is still raw as a quarterback, but I much prefer him and his upside to Aidan Chiles, who has 30 turnover-worthy plays to just 21 big-time throws as a college quarterback, as well as a 20.6% pressure-to-sack rate – a mark that would have put him 124th nationally last year among qualified quarterbacks. I also prefer the upside of Colorado’s skill positions, as DeAndre Moore, Joseph Williams, Danny Scudero and Kam Perry have been productive throughout their college careers in varying conferences.

Find our full Colorado vs Northwestern preview