We’re halfway through the work week and have a full slate of games today to celebrate. I’ve identified 3 edges in today’s slate that make up this mega parlay, but also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup. For now, let’s get into Wednesday’s MLB mega parlay.
Marlins -1.5 (+118)
White Sox vs Yankees alternate total over 9.5 (+116)
Rangers -1.5 (+146)
MLB Parlay odds: +1058
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Miami Marlins -1.5 over Kansas City Royals (+118)
Here’s a fun math equation: Jordan Lyles has made 12 starts this season and the Royals have won 0 of those starts. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Kansas City has won 0% of Lyles’ starts this season — not great! It’s not like the Royals have been competitive in those outings either because they are 1-11 ATS and have a losing margin of 2.83 runs. While you can put some of the blame onto the Kansas City offense, the majority of the blame can go to Lyles. The right-hander is 0-9 with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 66.2 innings this season.
Lyles’ issues are clear — he can’t keep the ball in the park. He’s allowed 17 home runs in 12 starts which is due to his career-high 12.4% barrel rate and .504 xSLG. But it only gets worse for Lyles because Wednesday’s start will be on the road which is where most of his struggles have come. In 5 starts away from Kauffman Stadium, Lyles has a 9.89 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. He’s allowing hitters to have a .287 batting average, .606 slugging percentage and .970 OPS during those 5 outings, so I like Miami’s chances at the plate.
Miami’s rotation is filled with youth and talent and that includes Wednesday’s starter, Edward Cabrera. The right-hander has a 4.50 ERA paired with a 3.93 xERA in 12 starts, and his only real knock is his control. There are times when Cabrera just loses it during the game, which has resulted in a 14.2% walk rate, but he’s allowed 1 walk or less in 3 of his last 4 outings which gives me hope for improvement. He’s coming off the best start of his season as he threw 6 scoreless innings while racking up 10 strikeouts against the Athletics. Yes, I know, it was against the A’s, but it’s still impressive. That outing lowered his ERA at home to 2.77 while limiting hitters to just a .215 batting average, so the advantages just keep favoring Miami in this contest. The Marlins should be able to jump on Lyles early and then build their lead against the inconsistent Kansas City bullpen, so I’m backing them on the run line to maximize the value.
Make sure you check out today’s MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees over 9.5 (+116)
There are 3 things you need to know about this game. One, this isn’t exactly a pitcher’s duel. Lance Lynn has a 6.55 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 12 starts for the White Sox while Randy Vasquez is making just his 2nd career appearance. Two, these offenses have a lot of firepower. Between Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge (if he plays), Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Andrew Benintendi, there are a lot of big bats that can add a run to the scoreboard with one swing of the bat. And third, the weather will make for very hitter-friendly conditions. Winds are projected to be blowing out towards right-center field at 12 MPH, which makes the hitter-friendly stadium even more generous to the hitters.
Lynn was an excellent arm for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, but times have quickly changed. He was 0-4 with an 8.00 ERA in April and followed that up with a 5.97 ERA in May, and his worst of the season was his most recent performance. Lynn was rocked for 8 runs on 8 hits, including 3 home runs, and 2 walks in just 4 innings to the Angels. That outing summed up his season because Lynn has really struggled with his control since he’s given up 15 home runs and 26 walks in just 67.1 innings. However, he’s not the only pitcher with control problems in this matchup because Vasquez tends to be wild. In his MLB debut against the Padres, Vasquez gave up 2 runs on 4 hits, including 1 homer, with 3 walks in just 4.2 innings of work. Between a pair of starters with control problems and hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium, I’m taking an alternate total for even better odds.
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Texas Rangers -1.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (+146)
Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung — it’s a modern-day Murderers’ Row! The Texas lineup has been the best in baseball this season, and following Tuesday night’s game, they average 6.44 runs per game and an absurd 7.04 runs per game at home. In their last 4 games, the Rangers have scored 38 runs and have a team OPS of 1.095, so it’s safe to say their offense has surpassed the Rays as the most dangerous in baseball. The reason their lineup has become so potent is simple — they don’t have a weak link. The top half of their order has been on fire, but the bottom half of their order continues to give them production from the 6 spot to the 9th. At this point, the Rangers don’t need to have their ace on the mound, they just need to have their offense perform to their norm.
What happened to the St. Louis Cardinals? They were the favorite to win the NL Central, by a wide margin I might add, and have fallen short of every expectation thus far. After Tuesday night’s loss, the Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 games and have scored more than 3 runs just twice during that span. Their offense has gone missing, and it’s not like their starting rotation can pick up the slack. The St. Louis rotation ranks 19th in ERA this season and will have Jack Flaherty on the mound for the series finale. Flaherty had a rough start to the year with 13 walks allowed in his first 2 starts, but he’s come back to reality in the last few weeks and has performed better. However, he takes on a Rangers offense that is mashing fastballs at the moment, and that is a pitch that Flaherty throws over 40% of the time. Until the Texas offense cools off, I’m backing the Rangers for another big win at home.
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