It’s a special kind of NFL football. Thanksgiving is here, and we have an awesome three-game slate for the occasion. There’s an intriguing nightcap in the late game as the New Orleans Saints host the Buffalo Bills. What better way to make this nationally televised primetime game even more exciting than by betting a same game parlay? I just hit one on Sunday for Cardinals/Seahawks at 14/1 and also hit one for the Falcons/Saints game in Week 9 at 13/1, so let’s do it again!
In addition to that SGP I also just hit the Week 11 mega parlay at +1762, so I’m feeling it right now.
Here we go:
We have a simple 2-leg same game parlay, which pays out north of 15/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
To start this same game parlay we have New Orleans on an alternate spread. The Saints have fallen on hard times since Jameis Winston tore an ACL, losing three in a row. This is their last stand. If this team is going to keep their season alive it’s right here right now. Home-field advantage doesn’t mean as much as it used to be, but a night game at the Mercedez-Benz Dome is still one of the most electric environments in all of sports. It means something.
The Bills have also looked pretty bad recently. Two of their past three games have been really ugly. First they scored only six points in a loss to the lowly Jaguars. Then this past week they got absolutely demolished by the Colts. Sandwiched in between those two duds was a win over the Jets — I’m not giving them much credit for that one. The Saints aren’t playing well right now, but they have a decent chance to pull off an upset.
We get a huge odds boost by combining this with the first leg of our same game parlay, but I’m not sure it conflicts much. FanDuel is assuming that if Allen is gaining yards on the ground, the Bills must be winning. But that’s just not what the evidence indicates. In Buffalo’s shocking loss to the Jaguars as a favorite of more than two touchdowns, Allen rushed for 50 yards. That was despite the team scoring only six points that game. When their offense struggled mightily back in Week 1 and they lost outright to the Steelers as a big favorite, he rushed for 44 yards.
There doesn’t seem to be a correlation between Allen running a lot and Buffalo’s offense having success. Allen has struggled as a passer recently, failing to top 6.0 yards per attempt in three of his past four games. So I think offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is going to look to get his legs more involved here. Regardless of the outcome of the game, Allen should have more designed runs here. Especially because the Saints sometimes struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks, as we saw last week with Jalen Hurts rushing for three touchdowns against them.
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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