The 2021 NFL season has been epic so far. And the Week 11 slate has just as much promise. We have an interesting AFC matchup here as the Buffalo Bills host the Indianapolis Colts. What better way to make this rematch from last year’s playoffs even more exciting than by betting a same game parlay? I just hit one of these on the Falcons/Saints game two weeks ago at 13/1, so let’s do it again!
Here we go:
We have a 3-leg same game parlay which pays out north of 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
To start this same game parlay off we’ve got the Colts on the money line. Buffalo is being priced like they’re the best team in the league here, when that simply isn’t the case. The Bills are 6-3, and they’re only 6-3 because they’ve played arguably the softest schedule in the whole league. Yes they beat the Chiefs early in the season, great. Congrats to them. Guess who the next-best team they’ve beaten after the Chiefs is? Washington.
That tells you everything you need to know about how easy they’ve had it. The Colts have gone 5-2 in their last seven, and both losses in that span were in overtime. If they hadn’t shot themselves in the foot in overtime against the Ravens and Titans, they’d be riding a seven-game win streak right now. Indy’s offensive line is mauling right now, and they’ve got a very good chance to pull off an upset.
I think this correlates nicely with the first leg of our same game parlay. In order for the Colts to win, their secondary is going to need to step up. Allen had a huge game against the Jets last week, but that’s the Jets. In his previous two games, he had really struggled against the Jaguars and Dolphins. Buffalo’s passing game just doesn’t look quite the same as it did last year, and the Bills are now down multiple starters on the offensive line for this one. Indy will control the time of possession with Jonathan Taylor, limiting the amount of attempts Allen gets.
To wrap this same game parlay up and hopefully bring us home, we’ve got the over on Alie-Cox. The big tight end has had a couple of down games lately, but he’s still had at least 25 yards in five of his past seven games. One of those games was one where he still had four targets, but just got unlucky and caught none of them. He even managed to get to 25 in the game the Colts played in a torrential downpour in San Francisco. Buffalo is very hard to beat on the outside, so I expect Frank Reich’s game-plan to heavily involve the tight ends here.
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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