Philadelphia Phillies 2022 MLB season preview, odds, and predictions

Bryce Harper Phillies
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Keith Schmelter

MLB· 2 months ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!

Are you missing baseball too? For those that don’t know me, hello! My name is Keith Schmelter and I was the most profitable MLB writer on the Pickswise staff last season. I finished +37.6 units on money line/run-line picks, +52.9 units on game totals, and +39.3 units (21-6-1) on three-star plays for Pickswise. I am a die-hard baseball fan with an even greater passion for statistics who loves to watch and bet on baseball. I will be analyzing every MLB team and giving my predictions for their 2022 season.

Continuing in the NL East, let’s analyze the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies breakdown

2022 World Series odds: +3500

2022 NL East odds: +550

2021 record: 82-80

2021 O/U record: 77-80-5

Key players in: Kyle Schwarber (LF), Corey Knebel (RP), Brad Hand (RP), Jeurys Familia (RP), Ryan Sheriff (RP), Odubel Herrera (CF)

Key players out: Hector Neris (RP), Andrew McCutchen (RF), Ian Kennedy (RP), Matt Moore (SP)

Story of last season

Philadelphia’s 82 wins in 2021 marked their first winning season since 2011. It was almost an end to their rebuild last season, but losing 6 of their final 7 games eliminated them from the Wild Card race. Although it was a very disappointing end to the year, there were still a lot of positives such as Bryce Harper winning the NL MVP after hitting .309 with 35 home runs. It was Harper’s best season since 2015 when he won the NL MVP with the Nationals.

Zack Wheeler was incredible in 2020 during his first year on the Phillies, but his second year with them was even better. He posted a 2.78 ERA with a 2.58 FIP in a career high 213.1 innings as he finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young vote. It was when the Philadelphia bullpen got involved that things went south as their arm barn ranked 24th in WHIP and 25th in ERA in 2021.

With a few new signings, could Philadelphia see their 11-year playoff draught end?

Philadelphia Phillies 2022 MLB season predictions

The Phillies needed to make a splash in free agency in order to compete in their newly loaded division, so enter Kyle Schwarber. After being traded to Boston at the trade deadline in 2021, Schwarber made an immediate impact for the Red Sox as he was a vital contributor in their deep playoff run. His 32 home runs in the leadoff spot in 2021 will be perfect for the Phillies lineup which has lacked a solid leadoff hitter for years.

The Achilles heel of the Phillies became apparent very early on: their bullpen. Opponents ended up hitting for a .248 average with 89 home runs against Philadelphia’s bullpen. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski saw the bullpen rebuild as a top priority, so the Phillies signed Ryan Sheriff, Corey Knebel, Brad Hand, and Jeurys Familia. These four relievers will almost certainly improve Philadelphia’s relief efforts.

Philadelphia will have the major parts of their lineup returning such as Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins, but their biggest problem is their division. It seems they will be involved in a three-team battle for the NL East title with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. The Mets starting rotation featuring Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom might be one of the most dangerous rotations in all of the league and the Braves are getting Ronald Acuna Jr. back to pair with Matt Olson to make a very threatening offense.

It’s not that the Phillies are a bad team, but their best shot at the playoffs is the second Wild Card spot. With Atlanta or New York likely winning the NL East, that leaves a lot of quality teams fighting for the Wild Card spots. I do expect Philadelphia to have a record above .500 in 2022, but I don’t see them competing for a World Series this year. 

2022 MLB season team previews

Check out the rest of our team previews for the upcoming baseball season!

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

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