Best expert NFL player prop bets for Week 4's late 4:25 pm games: Darren Waller stretches the field

Darren Waller of the Las Vegas Raiders
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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Due to there being a London game early Sunday morning, we have a very weak late slate of games in Week 4 (3 total). I do have one play that I LOVE and was able to get creative with the other plays. Make sure you are taking into consideration the units I associate with plays; it provides you with my level of confidence.

Get our handicappers’ NFL Week 4 best bets — we’re 13-5 this season!

Darren Waller, TE, LV longest reception over 18.5 yards (-121)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Waller has hit this in 2 of 3 games this season. He’s benefitting greatly from Davante Adams drawing a lot of attention from opposing secondaries. 20% of his targets are 20+ yards and 26% are between 10-19 yards, so nearly half his targets (3 per game) put this line in play. His aDot is 13 yards with a YAC/Rec of 6.8 yards. This line should be at 20.5, but for 18.5 I’ll eat the juice. Waller has cleared this mark against the Broncos in 4 straight games, sign me up for 2U!

Be sure to check out our full Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions

Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time publishing.

I view Courtland Sutton very similarly to Michael Pittman. They are both WR1s on their respective teams, have seen the lion’s share of targets, and their lines are not reflective of their performance. For Sutton, he has hit this in 3 straight games and the books have not adjusted to his production with Russell Wilson. Wilson does not look like the Wilson of old, but he’s still significantly better than Drew Lock. Sutton is at 28% target share (1st on the team) and has 10 more targets than the player in 2nd.

The Raiders are ranked 25th in coverage according to PFF and CB1 Nate Hobbs has not practiced all week due to concussion protocol. Also, Rock Ya-Sin has a knee strain and is questionable for Sunday. Any absence in the Raiders’ secondary would lead to a shake-up that favors Sutton. If his line is under 70.5, I’m playing for 0.5U.

Lock in Prop Holliday’s best NFL player props for the early slate — he’s on a 4-0 run!

Kyler Murray, QB, ARI Over 1.5 passing TDs (+125)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The Panthers have played well defensively to start the season, but they’ve faced the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones and Jameis Winston. I’ll speak more on this below, but this is an overreaction to the Rams game last week. The Cardinals have never performed well against Los Angeles under Kliff Kingsbury, so I’m willing to overlook that. Kyler has thrown for 2+ TDs in both games against the Panthers in his career. Cardinals WR Rondale Moore appears to be geared for a return this week, which will greatly help this passing attack. I’m on this for 0.5U.

Be sure to check out our full Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers predictions

Cardinals to score the most touchdowns (vs Panthers) (+105)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time publishing.

Not a player prop, but a prop, nonetheless. The Panthers’ defense has had success this season, but against the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones and Jameis Winston. Kyler Murray is a different animal. Prior to the game against the Rams, the Cardinals were putting up 25 ppg. The Panthers on the other hand could be missing CMC and from what I’ve seen of Baker Mayfield this season, he’s solidified himself as a backup for the rest of his career. I’d take this at -110, so getting it at + odds is a bonus. This is easily the best offense the Panthers have seen all season. I’m on for 1U.

Watch this week’s edition of Pickswise Playbook for our favorite NFL Week 4 plays!

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