Week 9 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week has been no different. To close out the Week 10 slate we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a battle between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to keep an eye on our NFL picks for every game this season!
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Philadelphia has routinely dominated opponents on the ground, but that might not happen this time around. The Commanders sit 4th in run defense efficiency on the season and have also allowed the 4th-lowest percentage of explosive runs. In fact, in their first meeting, the Commanders held Philly to its lowest rush EPA margin of the entire campaign. So while the Eagles should see success through the air, this Washington team can hang around. After all, the Commanders are the most consistent weekly performer this season based on Football Outsiders’ Variance metric. Washington shouldn’t win outright, but I would also be surprised if it gets completely dominated. In a divisional game, I like the Commanders’ chances to keep things close.
Taylor Heinicke is 11-8 against the spread in his career as a starter, including 3-0 this fall — so he has shown the ability to keep games close. The Commanders’ quarterback has been a double-digit underdog 3 times in his career and Washington is 2-1 against the number in those games. The good news is the Commanders do get back exciting rookie WR Jahan Dotson, and the Eagles are missing their slot CB Avonte Maddox this week. Thus the visitors could see success on the outside. Furthermore, the Eagles have been notorious for taking their foot off the gas after holding sizable leads so if that happens again, Washington has the ability to get through the backdoor here if necessary.
Be sure to check out our full Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions
Games taking place in primetime this season have typically gone under, and I wouldn’t expect much to change this time around. The Commanders keeping things close and covering the double digit spread pairs nicely with the game going under, as we often see in games involving divisional underdogs of more than a touchdown. Washington’s run defense is the strength of the team, while the Eagles will naturally want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Therefore, I expect the clock to be running throughout this game and for explosive plays to be harder to come by than in previous Eagles contests. And even if the game does get out of hand, Washington’s passing attack isn’t anything to write home about. The only way I can look in this game is the under.
Don’t miss Prop Holliday’s MNF Commanders vs Eagles best player props
The first meeting between these teams was dominated by Philadelphia, and the Eagles’ success came primarily through the passing game. Jalen Hurts threw for well over 300 yards to go along with 3 touchdowns in that contest, connecting with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. It’s fair to expect Philadelphia to have another solid day through the air, as Washington is a pretty mediocre pass defense — allowing 16 touchdowns through the air this season. Brown has found the endzone in 3 consecutive contests (5 in total during this stretch), so getting him at plus money is a great price.
Lock in our Commanders vs Eagles best touchdown scorer bets
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