NFL Week 10 concludes with the Washington Commanders visiting the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.
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I don’t have a strong feeling about this matchup but it is interesting that what the Eagles do best is run the football and Washington’s strength on defense is stopping the run. They sit 4th in run defense efficiency and have also allowed the 4th lowest percentage of explosive runs. In fact, in their first meeting, the Commanders held Philly to their lowest rush EPA output of the entire season when the Eagles posted a poor -0.52 EPA per rush. But the Eagles were able to dominate through the air and posted their single highest EPA performance and then sat on it in the 2nd half for the cover.
Where the Commanders do struggle is on early down passes where they rank 2nd worst in the NFL. Look for a lot of early down throws by Philly who will likely “establish the pass”. Can the Commanders stop it?
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The one thing I do know is that this Washington team is the most consistent week to week performer this season based on Football Outsiders Variance metric. Meaning their performance does not vary much and you know what you are going to get. So I would be surprised if they win outright and I would also be surprised if they get completely demolished. This is likely to end up right around this number either way.
Taylor Heinecke is 11-8 ATS in his career as a starter, including 3-0 this season, so he has shown the ability to keep games close as an underdog. He has been a double digit underdog three times in his career and Washington is 2-1 ATS in those games. The good news for Washington is they do get back exciting rookie WR Jahan Dotson, and the Eagles are missing their slot CB Avonte Maddox this week.
Where Washington will likely have a shot to cover is in the 2nd half. The Eagles have been notorious for taking their foot off the gas after taking big leads so if that happens again, Washington has the ability to get through the backdoor.
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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