Ricky Dimon
NFL
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The penultimate weekend of the 2022 NFL campaign is upon us, and it kicks off at 3:00 pm ET with the NFC Championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia is the #1 seed in the conference after compiling a 14-3 regular-season record, but San Francisco rolls into the City of Brotherly Love on a 12-game winning streak. It’s a blockbuster matchup, which is exactly how it should be with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.
Below is our SGP for the NFC Championship, and also be sure to check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles picks on the side and total.
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Under 46.5 (-110)
Christian McCaffrey Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114)
AJ Brown to score a touchdown (+155)
Parlay odds: +1185
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as Christian McCaffrey racking up a decent amount of rushing yards and AJ Brown finding the endzone don’t exactly work well with an under bet. But there is no reason why Under 46.5 can’t cash even if McCaffrey and Brown find some success. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Under 46.5 (-110)
It is true that both of these offenses are prolific, but the units on the other side of the ball are so stout that defense has a good chance to rule the day. The Eagles are ranked sixth in the NFL in DVOA for total defense, while the 49ers are #1 in that department. San Francisco has held a whopping 12 opponents to more than 16 points this season (playoffs included). In the Eagles’ last 2 games (both against the Giants), they allowed a grand total of 23 points – and New York had just torched Minnesota for 31 points in the Wild Card Round before managing only 7 against Philadelphia. The under is 4-0 in Philly’s last 4 overall and I expect that trend to continue.
Christian McCaffrey Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114)
Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft and began the year as San Francisco’s third-string quarterback. Purdy has performed admirably since taking over as the starter, but the 49ers still aren’t going to ask him to go out and win football games – especially not one as big as this. They are simply going to ask him not to lose games. This isn’t a good passing matchup for Purdy, anyway. Philadelphia was the #1 passing defense in the entire league during the regular season. As such, Sunday’s showdown has McCaffrey written all over it. He is averaging 68 rushing yards per game over the last 10 outings and in two previous road starts made by Purdy he got 19 and 26 carries and turned them into 108 and 121 yards, respectively.
AJ Brown to score a touchdown (+155)
There are specific moments you have in mind when you trade for a guy like AJ Brown. The NFC Championship is one of those moments. Of course, it’s not like the former Titans star wasn’t producing throughout the regular season. He produced 11 touchdowns through the air while finishing with 1,496 yards on 88 receptions. San Francisco’s defense was #2 in the regular season in both overall rushing defense (77.7 ypg) and yards per rush allowed (3.4). Meanwhile, the Niners gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Look for Brown to capitalize on this matchup in the form of at least 1 TD.
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