It’s a divisional matchup as the Buffalo Bills battle the New York Jets in the AFC East. The Bills are top of the division with a 6-1 record to the surprise of no one, but very few will have expected New York to be right behind them with a 5-3 record. The Jets’ defense has been tremendous this year behind star rookie Sauce Gardner and a sturdy defensive front. But can they stop Buffalo’s relentless attack? Our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.
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The Jets had won 4 straight before last week’s defeat to the Patriots. However, those wins were largely down to star rookie running back Breece Hall and an elite New York defense. Hall is now out for the season and it’s hard to see how this defense can completely shut down Josh Allen and the Bills offense, especially while the Jets have their own problems with quarterback Zach Wilson.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Bills -11, Jets +11
Total Points Over/Under: 46 points
Money Line Odds: Bills -580, Jets +440
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We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Bills and Jets.
You will probably hear the phrase “that’s a lot of points” when the experts are talking about this game, and yes favorites of 7+ have struggled this season (10-17 ATS), but if you widen the sample size to double-digit home divisional underdogs over the last 5 seasons, the favorite has done very well going 12-7 ATS (63%). I know that’s a mouthful, but my point is that trends can be misleading, so instead of worrying about the size of the number, let’s try to figure out if it’s a fair price relative to the market. It’s been one-way traffic on this game since the line opened Bills -7.5 over the summer, but that’s not for lack of trying from the Jets, who have exceeded our expectations so far this season. But this is a big step up in class for a QB that has wilted under the pressure during his brief NFL career.
Zach Wilson is grading out as the worst signal-caller in the league under pressure this season, and he’s facing a fierce Bills defense that currently employs one of the best pass rushers in the history of the league. Von Miller is still a highly productive player at this stage of his career, ranking 7th in pass rush win rate this season amongst DE/OLB. He’s facing a Jets OL that did not play well last week without starting RT Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is out for the season with a triceps injury. Wilson will not have much of a running game to rely on either, with Breece Hall also done for the year due to a torn ACL. Physically the Bills are better from top to bottom, but the Jets do have a feisty attitude thanks to their head coach, so I can see them battling here, but in the end, I’ll rely on talent winning out.
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If there’s one CB in the NFL who can give Stefon Diggs a run for his money in 1-on-1 coverage, it just may be Sauce Gardner. The rookie has the highest pass coverage grade in the NFL of any CB who has played in at least 200 snaps, just in front of Denver’s Patrick Surtain II. The Jets have struggled to find consistent offense this season. That will likely continue down the stretch as the long-term effects of being without starting RT Alijah Vera-Tucker and RB Breece Hall become more prevalent. Both of these teams are top 10 in EPA/play on defense, and while it’s almost impossible to completely shut down Josh Allen, I can see Robert Saleh’s unit being up for the challenge to slow him down enough to keep this game beneath the total.
The final cherry on top here is the success divisional unders are having this season, hitting at a 70% rate so far (28-12). At some point, we will likely see positive regression, but 3 of the 5 divisional games went under last weekend, including the only one that was priced higher than the key total of 44 (Bengals/Browns). So with a relatively elevated total here, I’ll nibble on the under.
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