Are you missing baseball, too? For those that don’t know me, hello! My name is Keith Schmelter and I was the most profitable MLB writer on the Pickswise staff last season. I finished +37.6 units on money line/run line picks, +52.9 units on game totals, and +39.3 units (21-6-1) on 3-star plays for Pickswise. I’m a diehard baseball fan with an even greater passion for statistics who loves to watch and bet on baseball. I will be analyzing every MLB team and giving my predictions for their 2022 season.
Moving along in the NL West, let’s analyze the San Diego Padres.
San Diego Padres breakdown
2022 World Series odds: +1800
2022 NL West odds: +290
2021 record: 79-83
2021 O/U record: 86-72-4
Key players in: Sean Manaea (SP), Luke Voit (1B)
Key players out: Mark Melancon (RP), Tommy Pham (OF), Daniel Hudson (RP), Adam Frazier (2B)
Story of last season
Disappointing is an understatement. The Padres assembled what seemed to be a super team for the 2021 season and even acquired star hitter Adam Frazier from the sinking Pirates at the trade deadline, but San Diego still finished the season below .500. San Diego finished 11 games back of a Wild Card spot and never sniffed a chance at the postseason after a poor second half of the season. Injuries plagued San Diego all season as they had more total days on the injured list than any team in the league (2,558).
The Padres rotation, which was supposed to be one of the best in the league, finished with the 18th best ERA. Blake Snell had the highest walk rate since his rookie season, Chris Paddack had an ERA above 5, and Yu Darvish was not as dominant as usual – you see my point. But Joe Musgrove was the silver lining of the rotation with a 3.18 ERA and a 27.1% strikeout rate.
With Jayce Tingler gone, is it a bounce back year in San Diego?
San Diego Padres 2022 MLB season predictions
To get the elephant in the room out of the way, Fernando Tatis Jr. is out for a while. The young face of baseball suffered a broken wrist during a motorcycle accident that happened during the lockout and is not expected back before late June. If you’re a Padres fan, the scariest part about this situation is when a reporter asked when the accident happened, Tatis responded with, “Which one?” It might be time for him to invest in four-wheel transportation.
As Oakland continued their fire sale, the Padres were able to benefit as they acquired lefty starter Sean Manaea. After stellar seasons from 2018-2019, Manaea regressed in 2020 as he had the highest xBA and hard-hit percentage in his career. The southpaw had a decent 2021 season, but he’s known as a fly-ball pitcher and will likely fill the role of the fourth starter in a talented Padres rotation.
The San Diego offense underperformed in every way. Besides Tatis and Manny Machado who both had solid 2021 campaigns, the rest of the Padres offense had one of the worst years of their career. That included Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, and Austin Nola who all failed to live up to expectations in 2021. For a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball, their offense finished 15th in batting average and 17th in OPS.
I think it’s safe to say that there is a lot of upside with the Padres in 2022. With most hitters in their lineup expected to get back to career average and their rotation is finally healthy, the Padres could be a threat for the NL Wild Card. I think the Dodgers will run away with the NL West title, so San Diego’s best shot is one of the three Wild Card spots. If they can avoid the injury plague and a second half of the season collapse, I could see the Padres in the playoffs.
However, asking the Padres to win 91 games is a tough task due to their division. San Diego won 79 games in 2021 and I don’t see them winning 12 more games in 2022, so I would consider taking the Padres under 90.5 wins.
Check out my picks for the 2022 World Series winner, including a +4000 longshot!
2022 MLB season team previews
Check out the rest of our team previews for the upcoming baseball season!
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL West
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